I was actually talking about the nation-wide results there, rather than seat-by-seat. Hence the case for a proportional system.
But I’ll admit, when looking at actual individual seat results, not being from Victoria, I was mostly looking at my own seat of Ryan (where the effect I described occurred, but not quite enough to flip from Greens to Labor) and neighbouring Brisbane (where it happened exactly as I described).
Melbourne is a difficult case because just looking at the swing doesn’t tell the full story. The division was also redrawn such that the strongest Greens booths moved to another division, and it received new booths that were much more Labor-friendly. Even if no individual voters had swung at all, you’d have seen a big swing towards Labor in 3CP, though not quite enough for the seat to flip.
The best case you could have made would actually have been Griffith, where the LNP lost a large amount of 1st preference support, and the Greens lost a moderate amount, while Labor benefited from both with a huge boost.
That’s fair, I was talking specifically about Melbourne. However, the redistribution doesn’t account for the swing against Bandt. The ABC’s analysis put his first preference vote nominally on ~45% after redistribution, but he only got 39.5% (and I believe their swing figures are adjusted for redistributions, which is why they show Bennelong as a Labor gain from the Liberals even though Labor previously held the seat).
You’re completely right about Brisbane though (and the same thing nearly happened in Ryan). The swing against the Greens alone wouldn’t have dropped them out of the 2CP, the massive surge for Labor at the expense of the LNP was what did it.
I was actually talking about the nation-wide results there, rather than seat-by-seat. Hence the case for a proportional system.
But I’ll admit, when looking at actual individual seat results, not being from Victoria, I was mostly looking at my own seat of Ryan (where the effect I described occurred, but not quite enough to flip from Greens to Labor) and neighbouring Brisbane (where it happened exactly as I described).
Melbourne is a difficult case because just looking at the swing doesn’t tell the full story. The division was also redrawn such that the strongest Greens booths moved to another division, and it received new booths that were much more Labor-friendly. Even if no individual voters had swung at all, you’d have seen a big swing towards Labor in 3CP, though not quite enough for the seat to flip.
The best case you could have made would actually have been Griffith, where the LNP lost a large amount of 1st preference support, and the Greens lost a moderate amount, while Labor benefited from both with a huge boost.
That’s fair, I was talking specifically about Melbourne. However, the redistribution doesn’t account for the swing against Bandt. The ABC’s analysis put his first preference vote nominally on ~45% after redistribution, but he only got 39.5% (and I believe their swing figures are adjusted for redistributions, which is why they show Bennelong as a Labor gain from the Liberals even though Labor previously held the seat).
You’re completely right about Brisbane though (and the same thing nearly happened in Ryan). The swing against the Greens alone wouldn’t have dropped them out of the 2CP, the massive surge for Labor at the expense of the LNP was what did it.