• @[email protected]
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      17 days ago

      I agree that Silwa wouldn’t normally win, but if you have centrists voting for Cuomo and Adams, some centrists and left of that voting for Mamdani, the 300,000+ voters out of a million that voted for Silwa last election may come closer than one would expect.

      Hopefully it’ll be 40% Mamdani, 20, 20, 20. But if it appears close I can see Cuomo or Adams "endorsing the other and dropping hoping to get a chance

      • @[email protected]
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        7 days ago

        sliwa is polling at 7% in the latest poll

        Even if we assume he get doubled that like 15%

        The remainder split 3 way evenly is about 28%

        sliwa would have to win like 26% then have the 3 split evenly 24.6 + 24.6 + 24.6

        Extremely rare for that to even be possible.

        My bets are 60% chance Mamdani wins, 35% cuomo win, 4% adams win, 1% sliwa win.

        • @[email protected]
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          7 days ago

          I hope your right. Now we need 350 more of those mayors, 230ish new congress members, and 53 new senators and we can start to have a start