Unlike Texas, California has an independent redistricting commission, which is a bipartisan panel designed explicitly to block partisan gerrymandering. That means Newsom would have to find a way to circumvent the commission to try to offset Texas with his own partisan gerrymandering. Here’s how that would work, according to NBC News:
Newsom hopes to work with the Democratic-dominated Legislature starting this month to set up a special election for a statewide ballot measure on Nov. 4. It would offer a newly drawn map if Texas moves forward, a source close to Newsom told NBC News. The ballot measure would do two things: First, it would affirm support for California’s independent commission and call for fair redistricting nationwide. Second, it would include a trigger that says a pre-drawn new House map expected to boost Democrats would take effect if Texas implemented a new map.
That’s a heavy lift, both politically and procedurally speaking. In a special election Newsom would have to convince Californians that he opposes partisan gerrymandering — but deserves the authority to do it anyway as a defensive political measure. And as NBC News reports, “any new House map would be constrained by the Voting Rights Act, as well as the governor’s office and the Legislature, which would need to greenlight it.”
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Hochul’s effort would be likely to take more time — and take effect after the midterms. New York also has its own independent redistricting commission, and NBC News reports that “changing the redistricting process must move forward as a legislatively referred constitutional amendment — a lengthy and arduous exercise that probably wouldn’t lead to new congressional maps until the 2028 election cycle, even if Texas acts before the upcoming midterms.”
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It’s awkward to fight for democracy while simultaneously mirroring Trump’s efforts to effectively disenfranchise voters. A group can champion principles most credibly by holding on to them, even when they’re inconvenient. And it’s not even clear that such efforts would be politically “necessary”: historical trends suggest Democrats could have a wave election in 2026, and, as Hasen notes, Texas’ redistricting ambitions could also backfire by diluting some Republican districts. The Republican plan is insidious — but it’s not guaranteed to work.
I have no faith in them to do what’s necessary.